The Reasons Saudi Investment Has Not Transformed The Magpies into Title Challengers

Eddie Howe is not prone to dramatics or grand media pronouncements. Based on his usual demeanor, his media briefing after Sunday’s loss to West Ham qualifies as a furious outburst. Newcastle took an early lead but West Ham took the lead by the interval, as well as hitting the post and having a penalty overturned by VAR, leading Howe to execute a three substitutions at the break.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” Howe stated. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I believe that was a reflection of where we were in that moment in the game and it's extremely uncommon for me to feel that way. In fact, I don’t think I have since I’ve been manager of Newcastle, therefore I believed the team needed some shaking up at half-time. That’s why I made what I did.”

Three key players all came off at the interval and the team did stabilise to an extent in the second half, without ever really looking like they might get back into the game against an opponent that had secured just a single victory of their last nine fixtures. Considering the congestion the centre of the table currently is, with a mere three-point gap separating third from 11th, and nine points between the upper and lower ranks, a run of 12 points from ten matches has not placed the Magpies adrift but, equally, they cannot end the campaign in 13th.

The Problem of Perception

The problem to an extent is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, the club possess the richest owners in the world. The expectation when the Saudi fund bought 80% of the club in recent years was that it would have a transformative effect, as Roman Abramovich achieved at Stamford Bridge or the City Group did at the Etihad. The difference is that those two owners took over prior to the introduction of financial fair play rules (and the current allegations against Manchester City relate to whether they violated those regulations after they were in place).

Financial regulations limit the capacity of owners, no matter how wealthy, to spend money on their squads and so in that sense likely might have slowed every Saudi effort to raise the team to the standard of Manchester City. But it wasn't necessary for Newcastle’s expenditure to have been so restrained as it has been; they could have invested further and stayed inside the threshold – or just accepted a fairly minor Uefa penalty given their major problem is more with the European than the domestic regulation.

Infrastructure Spending and PSR Rules

Besides which, stadium development is exempted from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the simplest way to increase revenue to generate more PSR flexibility would be to extend or redevelop the stadium. Given the location of the home ground, with protected structures on multiple sides, in reality that probably implies constructing an completely new venue. Rumors circulated in March of potentially making the short move to a local park – resistance from local groups might have been surmounted with a promise to create a replacement green space on the existing ground location – but there has been no movement on that proposal. There has occurred significant retrenchment from the PIF on a range of initiatives as it shifts focus on domestic affairs; the attitude to Newcastle seems entirely in alignment with that strategic shift.

Player Sales Saga

The star striker episode was arose from that tension. A more confident leadership might have framed his transfer as essential to free up funds for further investment; instead there was a unsuccessful attempt to keep him. This resulted in the team began the season amidst a feeling of frustration despite the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was mixed: one win in their initial six fixtures.

Yet it seemed a turning point was reached. They had won five in six prior to the weekend, a run that included demolitions of Union Saint-Gilloise and Benfica in the European competition. This explains the display against the Hammers was such a shock. The problem perhaps is that Newcastle’s approach is very aggressive, very high-octane; a slight drop-off in intensity can have profound consequences. Maybe the strain of Premier League, European and cup matches, five fixtures in 15 days, had taken its toll. The German forward featured in all five games and looked particularly fatigued.

The Nature of Modern Soccer

This is the nature of today's football. Coaches must be prepared to rotate. The manager has been unfortunate that the forward's fitness issue has left him short of attacking options but, no matter how valid the explanations, the weekend's performance was unacceptable –particularly following scoring first at a stadium ready to turn on its home team.

Howe will hope it was merely a temporary setback, one of those days when all players is off-colour at once, but if the Magpies are to qualify for the European competition next season, not to mention one day mount an actual title challenge, they must not be as inconsistent as they have been.

Debra Kemp
Debra Kemp

A tech enthusiast and writer passionate about emerging technologies and their impact on society.